Thursday, May 21, 2009

An example where Morning Star goes wrong

As far as the Morning Star prediction goes, it DID NOT HAPPEN or the technical reading is WRONG !

In that article, it says that

1) candle stick is one of the 'best' chart format to use
2) Morning Star is one of the most reliable signal in Candle Stick analysis
3) It said KNM will shoot up big time on 20 May onward

But after 2 days of movement, KNM's price has gone down instead.

So if 1) and 2) are right, then technically 3) should be correct too.  While the fact proven it wrong, what has gone wrong ?

These are the possibilities:

1) The technical reading is wrong.
This is one of the simplest indicator you can find.  Any user in technical analysis can comment at first sight if the artcile is right or wrong.  The only part they may disagree is the part that Morning Star is reliable, which is an academic claim.  Practiciant may have their own different personal experience.
At the same time when KNM is expected to go up due to that Morning Star signal, KLCI is expected to go down technically as well.  But it turns out KNM goes down while KLCI goes up the next day.  
However, in the same article, it did mention some other technical readings that say 'don't buy yet'.  So you may hear some technical gurus always tell you wait until ALL 3 indicators tell you to buy or sell then only you make a move.
Reasoning 2 is usually a better explaination to this 'wrong prediction' example.  However, malpf doesn't think using more indicators will give you more reliable signal.  It is just adding more reasons to one gambling move.  If you use the right reasons, you get what you want.  But when you use the wrong reasons ( wrong indicators, wrong parameters etc ) then you will still get the wrong result.  ( details on danger of TA )